Better late than never.

[ First recorded about 1200 ]

Trial and Repeat Dissipation Simulator

Microeconomics and marketing literature features three basic models of adoption and purchase of a product on the market:

The three models have been united into a single model. With some extensions, the TRD - Trial and Repeat Dissipation model was developed.

The MS Excel-97 simulator was finalized in 2005. It appeared very soon that the original intent to use probabilities obtained from conjoint measurements as parameters was unrealistic. Quite generally, conjoint derived parameters are essentially relative ones, but their absolute values differ a lot from those on the actual market. Other required parameters, namely mean time of the repeat cycle and switchback ratio, are hardly obtainable from a questionnaire-based research. A consumer panel might be of some help, but the best estimates can be obtained from detailed market data. Such data are hardly ever revealed.

The simulator might be helpful to product managers, students of marketing or microeconomics, and to all who are interested in studying influence of changing market conditions on sales.

Below is a simulator produced graphics of a textbook-like example. A little known product is subject to a well designed promotion campaign which is leading to increase of sales.

Default graphics Copied and customized graphics

The simulator, a description of its functionality and several examples are available as download.

Download TRD Simulator

As aside
The VBA part of the simulator is protected by a password.  Please note the simulator is a historic product that has never been or asked to be used commercially. The documentation on the implementation is unavailable.